Getting ready for Alabama’s road game with the Mississippi State Bulldogs? Here’s all you could ever want to know about the game: stats, players to watch, final score predictions, everything. We’ll come back with stats and more at halftime.
Until then, for in-game coverage, follow me on Twitter: @Brett_Hudson.
Pregame Links
Starkville Daily News: Inside story on MSU’s live mascot, Bully (PDF)
SB Nation: GIFs on the We Want Bama craze
SEC: Nick Saban’s Wednesday teleconference (bonus: Dan Mullen’s turn)
Tuscaloosa News: Vegas favors Alabama again, close to setting record
ESPN.com: 5 things for Alabama-Mississippi State
Players to Watch
Alabama center Ryan Kelly: Mississippi State’s strengths on the defensive line are both in the middle, defensive tackles P.J. Jones and Kaleb Eulls. Kelly’s ability to get Arie Kouandjio and Anthony Steen on the right man, or take one of these two himself, will be a deciding factor in Alabama’s ability to run inside.
Mississippi State wide receiver Jameon Lewis: Lewis is clearly Mississippi State’s leading receiving threat, leading the Bulldogs in the following statistical categories: receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, receptions per game and receiving yards per game. Lewis also leads the nation in touchdown passes by a non-quarterback, throwing three touchdown passes, the last one a 31-yard strike in last week’s loss to Texas A&M.
Mississippi State offensive lineman Gabe Jackson: Jackson is most likely the Bulldogs’ best threat to play at the next level: at least, the scouts pay attention to him as he is. Gettng off of a Gabe Jackson block in pass protection is quite the accomplishment and can easily make or break Alabama’s pass rush: pressure up the middle over Jackson could force Tyler Russell to the edge, where he will surely be met with superior edge speed and sacked. At least, that’s the theory.
Alabama cornerback Deion Belue: Someone has to be able to stay with Mississippi State wide receiver Jameon Smith (more on his impact in the Numbers to Know below). If Belue can lock down Smith, then Alabama’s other defensive backs and linebackers should have more freedom to lurk and maybe get in a spot for an interception or two.
Numbers to Know
2.43: Mississippi State is dead last in the nation (125 out of 125 FBS schools) in punt returns, averaging 2.43 yards per punt return.
4: Mississippi State has faced four top 15 teams this far this season and has lost to all four of them (Oklahoma State, LSU, South Carolina and Texas A&M).
10: Mississippi State is 10th in the SEC (68th in the nation) as they only covert on 39.84 percent of third down chances (49-123). The only SEC teams worse than Mississippi State on third down are Georgia, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee.
14: Mississippi State safety Nickoe Whitley is tied for the national lead among active FBS players in career interceptions with 14. Former Mississippi State greats Walt Harris and Johnathan Banks both ended their careers with 16.
95: Alabama is 1st in the SEC ad 5th in the nation, allowing only 95.3 yards per game rushing. Mississippi State comes into the game averaging 209.7 yards per game on the ground, 4th in the SEC behind Auburn, Missouri and Arkansas (inthat order).
113: Mississippi State running back LaDarius Perkins is only 113 rushing yards away from being in the top 5 in school history for career rushing yards. Perkins stands at 2,445 yards, while James Johnson is in 6th with 2,452 and Michael Haddix is in 5th with 2,558.
117: Mississippi State wide receiver Jameon Lewis averages 117.3 all-purpose yards per game this season for a total of 1,056 yards on the year (117 rushing, 505 receiving, 34 punt return and 400 kick return). For comparison, Alabama’s leader in all-purpose yards, T.J. Yeldon, averages 112 per game.
459: Mississippi State averages 459.2 yards of total offense this season. This is the highest number in school history by 37 yards (1982 averaged 422 yards per game).
Pregame Notes
– With a win, Alabama will have won 6 in-a-row against Mississippi State for the first time since the Crimson Tide won 15 in-a-row over the Bulldogs from 1981-1995.
– The current series record between the two teams is 75-18-3 in favor of the Crimson Tide. Alaama is 15-4 against the Bulldogs in Starkville and 27-7-2 when playing in the state of Mississippi against the Bulldogs.
– When the Bulldogs have played at home in Davis-Wade Stadium, quarterback Dak Prescott has accounted for 13 of the Bulldogs’ 24 touchdowns (six rushing, five passing and two receiving).
– Mississippi State is 2nd in the SEC in forcing three-and-outs, of course behind Alabama. Mississippi State has forced 39 three-and-outs, 4.3 per game and 34.2 percent of opposing drives.
– Alabama is 2nd in the SEC only to Texas A&M in completion percentage, with a 68.9 percent rate coming into tonight’s game. Mississippi State has not shown the ability to stop the pass this season, allowing opponents to complete 63 percent of their passes for 231 yards per game this season.
….And a couple more in tweet form.
Just because I'm in a stir-the-pot kind of mood. Mississippi State's lone win over No. 1 team was in 1980 against…..#Alabama. 6-3.
— Brett Hudson (@Brett_Hudson) November 16, 2013
To counter that, the Bulldogs are 1-4 against No. 1 teams. #Alabama has accounted for 3 of those losses. 2009 Florida was the other one.
— Brett Hudson (@Brett_Hudson) November 16, 2013
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 41, Mississippi State 6
If Alabama has any trouble scoring against the Bulldogs, it will be in the first possession or two while the players in their first appearance in Starkville (T.J. Yeldon, Kenyan Drake and O.J. Howard come to mind) are adjusting to the cowbells. After that, only Alabama’s execution – or lack thereof – can stop them.
Then why only 41 points if the offense is unstoppable? The Bulldogs strength defensively is in their defensive line and their safety, Nickoe Whitley. That combination of less deep balls and some pressure will force AJ McCarron to go to short routes more often than the norm. Therefore, Alabama’s possessions may take longer than normal, but they will likely end with scores all the same.
Throughout our pregame show, Crimson Tide Gameday, we got several members of the 90.7 WVUA-FM sports staff to give their final predictions on the game. Here they are.
Will Kanter: 38-6
Taylor Mooney: 42-3
Kenneth Harris: 45-6
Alex Simpson: 45-0
Seth Juneac: 45-3
Cole Thompson: 49-17
Avery Nelson: 49-3
Xavier Brasfield: 48-10
Stephen Smith: 45-6
Scott Braswell: 41-3
Je’Vonda Wright: 52-17
Kendall Grayson: 45-0
Andrew Wallace: 35-3
