Sudden shock, followed by an unusual mix of sadness and anger, quickly replaced with an unparalleled thirst for revenge. The blend of emotions, 99 percent of it the latter, comes to an end today. The Rematch comes as the Alabama Crimson Tide does battle with Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies again, this time for the first time as an SEC game in Kyle Field.
Alabama’s run vs. Texas A&M
Alabama’s inability to run the ball on Virginia Tech in the season opener has been the topic of discussion for nearly two weeks now. But, here is the explanation: Alabama had three first-time starters on the line against a Virginia Tech defense that was 3rd in the ACC and 30th in the nation against the run last season. And here’s the catch: the Hokies returned six of seven starters in the front seven from that 2012 defense, including all four defensive linemen. Today, the Crimson Tide goes up against a Texas A&M defense that surrendered 306 rushing yards to Rice, getting outrushed by the Owls.
Last Thought: A slight edge goes to Alabama. Rice hurt the Aggies on the ground with a much more versatile running game than Alabama’s. Alabama clearly has more talent than Rice, but the scheme is easier to gameplan for. The Tide will definitely have more success running the ball against the Aggies today, but I think that won’t show through until midway through the second quarter.
Alabama’s pass vs. Texas A&M
The Tide’s inability to move the ball consistently both on the ground and through the air was blamed on the offensive line. In reality, it was a little different: the offensive line could not establish the run, and because of that inability to run, Alabama could not pass. Today, an improved running game will help Alabama pass. Not necesarilly to hit the big bombs down the field (although they may happen), but even just to force the Aggies to put bigger guys on the field and let Alabama’s perimeter speed beat Texas A&M’s size when they drop back to pass.
Last Thought: Completion percentage might be AJ McCarron’s best stat at the end of the day. He may be completing passes for five yards at-a-time, but that’s all the Tide will need on third and four, right? It may not be the full-on serial assault Alabama fans were expecting coming into the season with a deep receiving corps, but Alabama’s passing attack will get the best of Texas A&M’s secondary today.
Texas A&M’s run vs. Alabama
This is the matchup of the day. Not very often do Southeastern Conference teams bring their quarterback as their best running threat, but Johnny Manziel is just that for the Aggies….and not necessarily on scrambles. Designed run plays: quarterback draws, read options, triple options, is where Manziel can make defenses pay when they key on his runs on pass plays. With C.J. Mosley spying him all day and the defensive line so focused on lanes, there may not be many cutback lanes for Manziel. Regardless of how much prep work goes into defending option plays, it is still one of football’s toughest tasks.
Furthermore, the way the Aggies. like to spread the field with three wide receivers on the field nearly at all times and always having five real threats down the field, this will force the Tide to take lateral, powerful run stoppers off the field in favor of nickelbacks or third safeties like Geno Smith, Landon Collins and company. They are true athletes in coverage, but they were not recruited to come up on the run.
Last Thought: Texas A&M has a small edge here. The Aggies will surely go to option runs to gain a key first down or two, and they will convert. But big plays on the ground are not likely. Getting yards on every rush play is nice, if it happens, but getting in too many third-and-sevens will lose this game for the Aggies.
Texas A&M’s pass vs. Alabama
The tempo of offenses like Texas A&M’s is frustratingto opposing defenses for many reasons, but frustrating to fans for one: easy, short passes like screens, bubble screens and flat routes will gain more yards on a defense that was not given the chance to align itself. A one-yard completion can, and will more often for the Aggies, turn into 15-yard first downs that can break a defensive coordinator’s spine. And that does not being to mention the double-move possibilities off that action: let’s not forget it was a screen-and-go that Amari Cooper ran to catch the game-winning pass in last year’s SEC Championship Game against Georgia.
Last Thought: The message Saban selected to preach all week was selected for a reason: it’s right. With the defensive talent Alabama has seen coming to Tuscaloosa in recent years, the Tide can defend most teams through the air for four seconds. Assignment football is the name of the game: stay in your zone or on your man if you’re in the secondary and trust your front seven to make the play in front of you. I’m going to give the edge to the Tide, because depth in the secondary with names like Landon Collins and Jarrick Williams will match the Aggies’ wide receivers and playmakers spread around the defense: C.J. Mosley, Geno Smith, Jeoffrey Pagan, could all see a coverage sack.
Final Prediction
Johnny will be Johnny and Alabama will be Alabama. Manziel will make electrifying plays, some that keep possessions going for Texas A&M, and Alabama will be able to run the ball on a weaker Texas A&M defense compared to Virginia Tech’s. The run game will get all the credit, but when the Aggies are forced to come up on the run, it will open room for playmakers like Amari Cooper, Christion Jones and Kenny Bell to move with space. AJ McCarron finds them and has a big game. Alabama 34, Texas A&M 20. A real dogfight in the first half opens up a little in the third quarter and Alabama scores in the last eight minutes to come out with the two-score win. Everyone will be talking about the performance of McCarron and Yeldon, but HaHa Clinton-Dix will play the best game of them all.
